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Predictive Analysis of Raid Event Success and Economics

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Predictive Analysis of Raid Event Success and Economics

Postby fiestacaserole » Tue Mar 17, 2015 9:41 pm

Introduction

Is it possible to know far in advance what your raid deck capability will be once the diamond bosses are released and even to know what your final raid deck capability will be virtually at the start of the event?

The answer is “yes” and you can make very accurate predictions on deck strength very soon after the raid starts and stats for the elites are available.

One of the popular goals in raid events is clearing summon boxes with the goal to get the Ultra Rare (UR). Completing this goal involves balancing the expenditure of resources, mainly time, but also energy potions (pots) and battle energy (BE). When deciding whether to “go for it”, it is helpful to have a sense of how expensive in terms of time, pots, and BE it will be to clear boxes.

Key predictors of how much total resources will be needed are:
  • BE required to kill or mvp level 46 bosses.
  • BE required to secure mvp on LBs.

The cost of BE depends on your deck strength. The probable combinations of deck capabilities are listed from worst to best.
  • It is not possible or extremely unlikely to kill level 46 and mvp LB with 3 BE.
  • Level 46 can be killed and LB mvp’ed with 3 BE most of the time, but not always.
  • 3 BE will guarantee a level 46 kill and LB mvp, however neither is not possible with 2 BE.
  • Level 46 can be killed with 2 BE most of the time, but not always. LB requires 3 BE for mvp.
  • Level 46 can be killed and LB mvp’ed with 2 BE most of the time, but not always.
  • 2 BE will guarantee a level 46 kill and LB mvp.

It is common to start out at one of the levels when diamonds are released and progress through these capabilities as elites are gained and the deck strength improves. The key is to progress as fast as possible.


This article provides some predictive techniques to help determine how deck strength will progress for a given raid. The profile of deck strength progress can be used to predict resource usage and help decide if you want to “go for it”. This article will probably be most helpful for the non-payer as it assumes no tier summons are purchased to help clear boxes.

Damage Summary

Before we get into the technical analysis, let’s review how damage works. The elements in Hellfire are Earth, Water, Fire, and Death. Earth is strong against water, weak against death. Water strong against Fire, weak against Earth. Fire strong against Death, weak against Water. Finally Death is strong against Earth, weak against Fire.

A creature of a given element does double damage against its weaker pair, half damage against its stronger pair, and neutral damage to all others. For example, an Earth creature with attack of 100 will do 200 damage against Water, 50 damage against Death, and 100 damage against both Earth and Fire.

Furthermore, there is the concept of “critical hit”. If the orb lands close enough to the center of the target, a bonus is awarded and the damage is multiplied by 1.5. For example, the Earth creature with 100 attack strength will do 300 damage against water with a critical hit.

As you can imagine, doing critical hits with Elites is extremely helpful on stronger bosses.

Elites and Deck Progression

Having elite creatures in a deck are vital to success in raid events. A fully evolved super rare (SRE) or rare (RE) elite receives a 4-fold increase in creature statistics. Elites are summoned from boxes, however 3 REs are awarded on the course to achieving 350,000 event points. The following benchmarks are useful in predicting success as a raid event progresses.
  • Achieve 350,000 event points and summon 1 RE from box 1.
    • In case the RE has a strong attack profile against the day 1 bosses, it can useful to spend extra time and a few pots to reach this benchmark sooner. Having the RE in the deck will likely allow 1 BE kills of bosses as high as level 18 and 1 BE mvp status on level 20 bosses. MVP and team bonus on these bosses gives a few extra rubies.
  • Finish box 1 and summon 1 SRE from box 2.
    • It is good to reach this point before the start of day 3 when diamond bosses are release. This will result in 2 fully evolved REs and 1 fully evolved SRE, a goal that is particularly useful if the elites have a strong attack profile against the high level bosses.
  • Finish box 2.
    • This benchmark results in 2 fully evolved SREs and as many as 4 fully evolved REs. In practice, I usually stop with 3 REs unless they are particularly useful. Try to be here before legendary bosses (LBs) are released.

Tracking ahead of or on these benchmarks is only one predictor of raid success, but a strong one. The deck progressions listed in the table below are somewhat “milestone” configurations. There will probably be several intermediate deck configurations along this progression. This progression is not exactly how it happens in every raid and would be tweaked depending on the profile of the elites.

Deck Progression Early Diamond Deck (Start of diamond bosses) Intermediate Deck (Start of LBs) Final Deck (ASAP after LB start)
Deck Composition SRE and 2xRE supplemented with rewinders and healers 2xSRE and 3xRE supplemented with rewinders and healers 3xSRE, 3xRE, and 3 rewinders


Predictive Analysis

In this section, we cover a quick and easy analysis that you can do using your favorite spreadsheet application. This analysis will help you predict strength of the three milestone deck progressions outlined in the previous section and how they will perform against level 46 bosses and LBs.

The framework for this analysis uses key bits of data from the raid.
  • The elite’s attack and health statistics.
  • The elite’s attack profile, i.e. how much damage is done on each element class.
  • The attack and health statistics for the level 46 and LB.
  • A Rewind/Healer factor – this is a best guess on the additional number of attack cycles that your rewinders and healers will contribute on average

This analysis can be done as soon as the elite statistics are known. Normally this is very soon after the raid event starts.

For a given configuration, the analysis proceeds as follows.

  • Take a best guess at what supplemental rewinders, healers, and attackers you will use along with the elites in your raid deck and how the rows will be configured.
  • Calculate the “attack profile” for the deck, i.e. what is the attack that each row does on each element?
  • Determine a “sweet spot” attack or a predicted average damage per attack cycle based on the attack profile and element distribution of the boss seals.
  • Calculate a predicted number of attack cycles using the boss attack statistic, deck health, and Rewind/Healer factor.
  • Calculate predicted total damage using the predicted number of attack cycles and sweet spot attack.

The predicted total damage will give you a good measure of deck strength and capabilities.

Let’s illustrate the analysis framework using data from event 112, From the Other Side. Let’s start with collecting the necessary data.

Here are the elite statistics.

Creature Attack Elite Atk Health Elite Health
Light Flux (SRE) 2+1+1 29346 117384 16116 64464
Caleidrox (RE) 3+1 17610 70440 17403 69612



The SRE has good attack and the RE is balanced. This RE also had rewind skill which is a bonus.
In this event, the elites were also a good match to the boss seal distribution, which was Earth – 10%, Water – 35%, Fire – 30%, Death – 25%. The SRE was Earth and the RE was Water.

Next is the elite attack profile.

Earth Water Fire Death
Light Flux Normal 117384 234768 117384 58692
Critical 176076 352152 176076 88038
Caleidrox Normal 35220 70440 140880 70440
Critical 52830 105660 211320 105660


In the table above, we see the attack that each elite has against every element. It points out the obvious fact that Light Flux is strong against Water and Caleidrox is strong against Fire.

Now the final bits of data, boss statistics and Rewind/Healer factor.

Parameter Value
Level 46 Health 52000000
Level 46 Attack 120000
Level 100 Health 198900000
Level 100 Attack 51000
Rewind/Healer Factor 4


The data for level 46 and LB is available shortly after the event start. The Rewind/Healer factor represents how many additional attack cycles your rewinders contribute by adding to the clock and healers by recovering deck health. You can tweak this value depending on how many of each type you use. Formulas in the spreadsheet based on this parameter will adjust automatically.

Now let’s proceed with a best guess at the first deck in the deck progressions and predict how it will fare against the level 46 bosses. The early diamond deck has 2 RE and 1 SRE, supplemented with some rewinders, attackers, and healer. I’ll stress that this is a concept configuration that is considered day 1 only to determine predicted capability. The table below provides the 2 BE attack profile for the deck and assumes critical hits.

Row Earth Water Fire Death
Caleidrox(RE) x 2, Emblin 405605 811211 1622421 811211
Jendefhor, Labyrinth, Archenotrema 414882 207441 414882 829764
Light Flux(SRE), G&E, Plague Doctor 830673 1661346 830673 415337


The clear “sweet spot” attack is row 1 against Fire, row 2 against Death, and row 3 against Water. The sweet spot attack totals to 4113531. This is a good predictive value to use for each attack cycle. Although you won’t always get a sweet spot combination of seals, in practice your attack will be against 3 to 5 seals and average damage over all cycles is usually at least as much as the sweet spot attack. It’s important to count on getting critical hits.

This decks 2 BE health is 1030050. Each time a level 46 boss hits your deck, it does 120000 damage. Divide deck health by the level 46 damage and round up to the nearest integer. In our example, the result is 9. This number represents the number of attack cycles that you will get. Multiply attack cycles by the sweet spot attack and the result is 37021779. This number represents a baseline predicted value for total damage the deck can do on level 46 bosses without rewinds or heals. Adding the Rewind/Healer factor into the equation increases total damage to the adjusted value of 53475903.

Given that 53475903 is greater than the level 46 health, it is clear that this model is predicting level 46s will be fairly easy to 2 BE kill right from the start of diamond boss release.

The analysis for the remaining 2 deck progressions is similar, but really not needed for this particular raid since the first deck is so strong. For this event, the analysis of the proposed deck at that start of the LB phase, the second deck in the progression, predicted damage of 94003254 to the LB using 2 BE. This is close enough to LB mvp to indicate that the chance of success in the raid is very high and that it would be very economical to proceed.

Conclusion

This article provides a framework for calculations that can predict your raid success. If you follow the steps presented and do this for one raid and you’ll have a template that can be used over and over again. Happy raiding!

Cheers,
Fiesta
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